CSKA Sofia v Arda in Bulgarian First League ended 4:1. Here you will find the final score, the goals and goalscorers, every key moment of the match, the full statistics with xG and the video highlights. See the match prediction or browse the full fixture list.
Prediction and probabilities: CSKA Sofia v Arda
How the models performed
Pro AI (XGBoost) predicted Home win · CSKA Sofia at 42.5% - the match finished 4:1, so the prediction was correct.
Model
1 · CSKA Sofia
X
2 · Arda
Prediction
Result
ELO + Poisson
40.7%
29.5%
29.8%
Home win · CSKA Sofia
✔ Correct
Pro AI (XGBoost)
42.5%
21.0%
36.4%
Home win · CSKA Sofia
✔ Correct
Final score
4:1
Home win · CSKA Sofia
Predictions are published before kick-off and are never edited afterwards. For information purposes only – not betting advice. 18+ · Methodology
Closing odds
Before kick-off the bookmakers were offering average odds of 1.76 on a CSKA Sofia win, 3.22 on the draw and 4.78 on a Arda win (closing odds).
Market
Avg odds
Best
Market %
Model %
CSKA Sofia win
1.76
1.801xBet
56.8%
42.5%
Draw
3.22
3.50Bet365
31.1%
21%
Arda win
4.78
5.83Pinnacle
20.9%
36.4%
Over 2.5 goals
2.10
2.18Unibet
47.6%
62.9%
Under 2.5 goals
1.70
1.73Bet365
58.8%
37.2%
Both teams to score - Yes
1.94
2.00Bet365
51.5%
61.1%
Both teams to score - No
1.76
1.82Betano
56.8%
38.9%
Updated: 09.09.2026 11:22 · Average odds across 10 bookmakers. Informational data - not an invitation to bet and not advice. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Match events: CSKA Sofia v Arda
2′⚽Birsent Karagaren · Goal
34′🟨Dominik Yankov · Yellow card
41′⚽Stefano Sensi · Penalty
42′🟨Vyacheslav Velev · Yellow card
45′🟨Jean-Philippe Gbamin · Yellow card
46′🔄Cătălin Itu · Substitution (off: Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira)
46′🔄Dominik Yankov · Substitution (off: Adama Ardile Traore)
