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Guinea v Kenya

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers
Guinea
1:0
Full time
Kenya

Guinea v Kenya in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers ended 1:0. Here you will find the final score, the goals and goalscorers, every key moment of the match, the full statistics with xG and the video highlights. See the match prediction or browse the full fixture list.

Prediction and probabilities: Guinea v Kenya

How the models performed

Pro AI (XGBoost) predicted Away win · Kenya at 51.0% - the match finished 1:0, so the prediction was wrong.
Model 1 · Guinea X 2 · Kenya Prediction Result
ELO + Poisson 37.2% 29.8% 33.0% Home win · Guinea ✔ Correct
Pro AI (XGBoost) 26.1% 22.9% 51.0% Away win · Kenya ✘ Missed
Data Providers 10.0% 45.0% 45.0% Away win · Kenya ✘ Missed
Final score 1:0 Home win · Guinea
Predictions are published before kick-off and are never edited afterwards. For information purposes only – not betting advice. 18+ · Methodology

Closing odds

Before kick-off the bookmakers were offering average odds of 1.61 on a Guinea win, 3.31 on the draw and 5.76 on a Kenya win (closing odds).
Market Avg odds Best Market % Model %
Guinea win 1.61 1.70 Betano 62.1% 26.1%
Draw 3.31 3.60 Bet365 30.2% 22.9%
Kenya win 5.76 6.40 Pinnacle 17.4% 51%
Over 2.5 goals 2.63 2.75 Betfair 38% 55%
Under 2.5 goals 1.42 1.44 Pinnacle 70.4% 45%
Both teams to score - Yes 2.58 2.75 Bet365 38.8% 55.4%
Both teams to score - No 1.44 1.45 Betfair 69.4% 44.6%
Updated: 01.10.2026 13:41 · Average odds across 9 bookmakers. Informational data - not an invitation to bet and not advice. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

Match events: Guinea v Kenya

  1. 16′mohammed bajaber · Yellow card
  2. 32′Serhou Guirassy · Goal
  3. 45′Micah Obiero · Substitution (off: Timothy Ouma)
  4. 45′Job Ochieng · Substitution (off: Rambok Ryan Wesley Ogam)
  5. 45′Aboubacar Keita · Substitution (off: Mory Konate)
  6. 60′Aliou Balde · Substitution (off: Aguibou Camara)
  7. 60′mohammed bajaber · Substitution (off: Shariff Sirengo)
  8. 60′Seydouba Cisse · Substitution (off: Ibrahima Sory Bangoura)
  9. 64′Mohamed Camara · Yellow card
  10. 74′Ben Stanley Omondi · Substitution (off: Javan Omondi Ochieng)
  11. 76′Abdoul Karim Traoré · Substitution (off: Ousmane Camara)
  12. 83′Yadaly Diaby · Substitution (off: Lamine Diaby Fadiga)
  13. 87′C. Erambo · Substitution (off: Amos Wanjala)

Match statistics: Guinea v Kenya

Statistic Guinea Kenya
Possession 53% 47%
Shots on target 3 2
Total shots 9 5
Shots off target 3 2
Blocked shots 3 1
Corners 5 2
Fouls 10 17
Offsides 3 1
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Saves 2 2
Passes 336 310

Line-ups: Guinea v Kenya

Guinea 4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 3 A. Keita 7.0
  2. 5 Mohamed Soumah 7.4
  3. 6 I. Fofana 7.5
  4. 8 A. Traoré 6.6
  5. 9 S. Guirassy 7.7
  6. 10 A. Balde 7.2
  7. 11 Y. Diaby 7.6
  8. 15 S. Cissé 7.2
  9. 19 Ousmane Diabate 6.3
  10. 21 S. Sylla 7.7
  11. 22 M. Camara 6.5
Substitutes (9)
  1. 1 Mussa Diallo
  2. 4 S. Sow
  3. 13 Madiou Keita
  4. 14 M. Sylla
  5. 17 I. Bangoura 7.1
  6. 18 A. Camara 6.9
  7. 20 M. Konaté 6.8
  8. 24 L. Diaby-Fadiga 6.8
  9. 25 O. Camara 6.6

Kenya 4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 4 M. Kibwage 6.8
  2. 5 F. Odhiambo 6.7
  3. 8 Duke Ooga Abuya 6.4
  4. 16 R. Onyango 6.7
  5. 19 J. Ochieng 5.9
  6. 20 M. Okwaro 6.9
  7. 22 M. Obiero 6.3
Substitutes (5)
  1. 10 T. Ouma 6.5
  2. 14 A. Wanjala 6.3
  3. 15 R. Ogam 6.5
  4. 17 V. Harper
  5. 21 S. Wilson

Form and head-to-head: Guinea v Kenya

Guinea

LLDDW

Kenya

DWDWD

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts Form
1 Morocco 2 2 0 0 +4 6 WW
2 Gabon 2 1 0 1 0 3 WL
3 Niger 2 1 0 1 -1 3 LW
4 Lesotho 2 0 0 2 -3 0 LL
1 Egypt 2 1 1 0 +5 4 WD
2 Malawi 1 1 0 0 +1 3 W
3 Angola 1 0 1 0 0 1 D
4 South Sudan 2 0 0 2 -6 0 LL
1 Ivory Coast 2 2 0 0 +4 6 WW
2 Gambia 2 2 0 0 +3 6 WW
3 Somalia 2 0 0 2 -3 0 LL
4 Ghana 2 0 0 2 -4 0 LL
1 South Africa 2 2 0 0 +6 6 WW
2 Guinea 2 1 0 1 0 3 WL
3 Eritrea 2 0 1 1 -5 1 LD
4 Kenya 2 0 1 1 -1 1 LD
1 Congo DR 2 2 0 0 +3 6 WW
2 Zimbabwe 2 1 0 1 0 3 LW
3 Equatorial Guinea 2 1 0 1 -1 3 WL
4 Sierra Leone 2 0 0 2 -2 0 LL
1 Benin 2 1 1 0 +1 4 WD
2 Burkina Faso 2 1 1 0 +1 4 WD
3 Mauritania 2 1 0 1 +1 3 LW
4 Central African Republic 2 0 0 2 -3 0 LL
1 Cameroon 2 1 1 0 +2 4 DW
2 Comoros 2 1 0 1 -1 3 WL
3 Namibia 2 1 0 1 0 3 LW
4 Congo 2 0 1 1 -1 1 DL
1 Uganda 2 1 1 0 +1 4 WD
2 Botswana 2 0 2 0 0 2 DD
3 Tunisia 2 0 2 0 0 2 DD
4 Libya 2 0 1 1 -1 1 LD
1 Algeria 2 1 1 0 +2 4 DW
2 Zambia 2 1 0 1 0 3 WL
3 Togo 2 1 0 1 -1 3 LW
4 Burundi 2 0 1 1 -1 1 DL
1 Senegal 2 1 1 0 +1 4 WD
2 Mozambique 2 1 1 0 +3 4 WD
3 Sudan 2 1 0 1 -2 3 LW
4 Ethiopia 2 0 0 2 -2 0 LL
1 Rwanda 2 2 0 0 +3 6 WW
2 Mali 2 2 0 0 +3 6 WW
3 Cape Verde Islands 2 0 0 2 -3 0 LL
4 Liberia 2 0 0 2 -3 0 LL
1 Guinea-Bissau 2 2 0 0 +5 6 WW
2 Nigeria 2 1 0 1 -2 3 LW
3 Tanzania 2 0 1 1 -2 1 DL
4 Madagascar 2 0 1 1 -1 1 DL

Managers: Guinea v Kenya

Paulo Duarte
GuineaManagerPaulo Duarte

Match information: Guinea v Kenya

Kick-off
·
Competition
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers
Round
Group Stage – 2
City
Alexandria
Surface
grass
Capacity
19,676