Predictions for the 2026 World Cup: an assessment of the model
The 2026 World Cup is over - Spain are the champions after beating Argentina 1:0 in the final on 19 July 2026. What stays here is the full review of our free statistical predictions from the ELO + Poisson model: it called the final outcome (1X2) of 53 of all 104 matches (51%) at the tournament. Below you will find the latest results from the knockout stage and an explanation of how the model works, while the current daily predictions for club football continue in our Tipster.
Latest results from the 2026 World Cup
All results →-
Final
Spain
1 : 0 a.e.t.
Argentina
Prediction Spain · 46%
-
Third-place play-off
France
4 : 6
England
Prediction France · 46%
-
Semi-final
England
1 : 2
Argentina
Prediction England · 46%
-
Semi-final
France
0 : 2
Spain
Prediction France · 52%
-
Quarter-final
Argentina
3 : 1 a.e.t.
Switzerland
Prediction Argentina · 54%
-
Quarter-final
Norway
1 : 2 a.e.t.
England
Prediction Norway · 40%
-
Quarter-final
Spain
2 : 1
Belgium
Prediction Spain · 39%
-
Quarter-final
France
2 : 0
Morocco
Prediction France · 50%
-
Round of 16
Switzerland
0 : 0 pens
Colombia
Prediction Switzerland · 57%
-
Round of 16
Argentina
3 : 2
Egypt
Prediction Argentina · 51%
-
Round of 16
United States
1 : 4
Belgium
Prediction Belgium · 43%
-
Round of 16
Portugal
0 : 1
Spain
Prediction Spain · 41%
-
Round of 16
Mexico
2 : 3
England
Prediction Mexico · 44%
-
Round of 16
Brazil
1 : 2
Norway
Prediction Brazil · 52%
How the model performed at the 2026 World Cup
The free ELO + Poisson · v1.0 model published probabilities for each of the tournament’s 104 matches in the 1X2, BTTS (both teams to score) and over/under 2.5 goals markets. In the main 1X2 market the model called the final outcome of 53 of 104 matches - an accuracy of 51%. For comparison: with three possible outcomes, guessing at random lands around 33%. Every prediction was published before the opening whistle and stayed visible after the match.
How the predictions were generated (ELO + Poisson)
The ELO component rates the strength of each team, while the Poisson distribution models the expected number of goals, from which the probabilities for each market are derived.
- 1X2 – the probability of a home win, a draw or an away win.
- BTTS – the probability that both teams score.
- Over/under 2.5 goals – the probability that the match ends with more or fewer than 2.5 goals.
Every prediction came with a probability and a confidence level. Higher confidence means a wider gap between the estimated outcome probabilities - a match with a clear favourite, for example. That is not a guarantee of a result, but a statistical estimate of the most likely outcome.
Results from the knockout stage
The section above shows the latest results from the 2026 World Cup - the final, the third-place play-off and the semi-finals - together with the model’s prediction for each of them. The full schedule with all 104 results is on the 2026 World Cup fixtures page, and the scoring charts are with the top scorers.
Where the predictions continue
Now that the tournament is over, the free daily selections carry on for club football - the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, the Champions League and hundreds more: 680+ leagues in total. You will find all the daily selections, ordered by the model’s confidence, in our Tipster.
Responsible gambling
The predictions on this page are statistical estimates from an ELO + Poisson model, not a guarantee of a result and not betting advice. Betting carries financial risk.
- 18+ – this content is for adults only.
- Play responsibly – only bet with money you can afford to lose.
- The predictions are informational statistical estimates; they are not a guarantee and not financial or gambling advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate were the predictions for the 2026 World Cup?
The ELO + Poisson model correctly predicted the final result (1X2) of 53 out of the 104 matches at the 2026 World Cup – an accuracy of 51%. The predictions were statistical probability estimates, not a guarantee of the result.
Were the predictions for the 2026 World Cup free?
Yes. All the predictions for the 2026 World Cup were completely free, with no registration required and no paid access, labelled as „Free prediction · ELO + Poisson · v1.0“.
Which markets did the model cover?
Three markets for each of the 104 matches: 1X2 (home win, draw or away win), BTTS (both teams to score) and over/under 2.5 goals.
Where can I follow the predictions after the tournament has finished?
Free daily predictions for club football continue on the /tipster/ Tipster Hub – picks for today’s and tomorrow’s matches, sorted by the model’s confidence level.
Is that a betting tip?
No. The content is for information purposes only and presents statistical estimates based on the model. It is not a recommendation to place a bet, nor does it constitute financial or gambling advice. Betting is for those aged 18 and over and involves financial risk – please gamble responsibly.