Matsumoto Yamaga v Albirex Niigata

1:0

Full time

Matsumoto Yamaga v Albirex Niigata in J-League Cup ended 1:0. Here you will find the final score, the goals and goalscorers, every key moment of the match, the full statistics with xG and the video highlights. See the match prediction or browse the full fixture list.

Prediction and probabilities: Matsumoto Yamaga v Albirex Niigata

How the models performed

Pro AI (XGBoost) predicted Home win · Matsumoto Yamaga at 39.5% - the match finished 1:0, so the prediction was correct.

Model	1 · Matsumoto Yamaga	X	2 · Albirex Niigata	Prediction	Result
ELO + Poisson	31.6%	28.9%	39.5%	Away win · Albirex Niigata	✘ Missed
Pro AI (XGBoost)	39.5%	23.2%	37.4%	Home win · Matsumoto Yamaga	✔ Correct
Data Providers	10.0%	45.0%	45.0%	Away win · Albirex Niigata	✘ Missed
Final score	1:0			Home win · Matsumoto Yamaga

Predictions are published before kick-off and are never edited afterwards. For information purposes only – not betting advice. 18+ · Methodology

Closing odds

Before kick-off the bookmakers were offering average odds of 2.66 on a Matsumoto Yamaga win, 3.39 on the draw and 2.32 on a Albirex Niigata win (closing odds).

Market	Avg odds	Best	Market %	Model %
Matsumoto Yamaga win	2.66	2.71 SBO	37.6%	39.5%
Draw	3.39	3.52 Pinnacle	29.5%	23.2%
Albirex Niigata win	2.32	2.40 Pinnacle	43.1%	37.4%
Over 2.5 goals	1.70	1.75 Bet365	58.8%	53.4%
Under 2.5 goals	2.05	2.14 SBO	48.8%	46.6%
Both teams to score - Yes	1.59	1.62 Bet365	62.9%	53.9%
Both teams to score - No	2.22	2.30 Betfair	45%	46.1%

Updated: 29.09.2026 07:29 · Average odds across 9 bookmakers. Informational data - not an invitation to bet and not advice. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

Match events: Matsumoto Yamaga v Albirex Niigata

23′R. Takano · Goal
58′Iury Castilho · Substitution (off: M. Moraes)
58′C. Konagaya · Substitution (off: K. Shimabuku)
61′K. Kasai · Yellow card
63′R. Takano · Substitution (off: D. Higuchi)
68′Y. Taguchi · Substitution (off: K. Fujieda)
68′R. Sawazaki · Substitution (off: H. Murakami)
68′K. Kasai · Substitution (off: A. Ishiyama)
71′K. Kawakami · Yellow card
81′G. Matsumura · Substitution (off: S. Kaneko)
81′K. Kawakami · Substitution (off: S. Rikiyasu)
82′T. Arai · Substitution (off: T. Kato)
82′Y. Wakatsuki · Substitution (off: K. Kuwayama)

Form and head-to-head: Matsumoto Yamaga v Albirex Niigata

Matsumoto Yamaga

LWDLD

3 Oct 2026HGainare Tottori0–1L
26 Sep 2026ATochigi SC2–1W
18 Sep 2026ARoasso Kumamoto0–0D
13 Sep 2026HSagamihara1–3L
9 Sep 2026HShonan Bellmare3–3D

Albirex Niigata

WDWWL

3 Oct 2026HTokushima Vortis2–1W
26 Sep 2026ABlaublitz Akita2–2D
19 Sep 2026HJubilo Iwata2–1W
13 Sep 2026HMontedio Yamagata1–0W
6 Sep 2026AYokohama FC0–5L

J-League Cup standings

Standings are not available for this competition.

Managers: Matsumoto Yamaga v Albirex Niigata

Matsumoto YamagaManagerT. HayakawaJapan

Albirex NiigataManagerT. YoshimotoJapan

Match information: Matsumoto Yamaga v Albirex Niigata

Kick-off: Tue 29 Sep · 10:00
Competition: J-League Cup
Round: Round of 64
Venue: Sunpro Alwin
City: Matsumoto
Surface: grass
Capacity: 20,336