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Palmeiras v Bahia

Serie A
Palmeiras
1:0
Full time
Bahia

Palmeiras v Bahia in Serie A ended 1:0. Here you will find the final score, the goals and goalscorers, every key moment of the match, the full statistics with xG and the video highlights. See the match prediction or browse the full fixture list.

Prediction and probabilities: Palmeiras v Bahia

How the models performed

Pro AI (XGBoost) predicted Home win · Palmeiras at 53.0% - the match finished 1:0, so the prediction was correct.
Model 1 · Palmeiras X 2 · Bahia Prediction Result
ELO + Poisson 60.8% 22.3% 16.9% Home win · Palmeiras ✔ Correct
Pro AI (XGBoost) 53.0% 18.8% 28.2% Home win · Palmeiras ✔ Correct
Data Providers 45.0% 45.0% 10.0% Home win · Palmeiras ✔ Correct
Final score 1:0 Home win · Palmeiras
Predictions are published before kick-off and are never edited afterwards. For information purposes only – not betting advice. 18+ · Methodology

Closing odds

Before kick-off the bookmakers were offering average odds of 1.56 on a Palmeiras win, 4.24 on the draw and 5.38 on a Bahia win (closing odds).
Market Avg odds Best Market % Model %
Palmeiras win 1.56 1.62 Betano 64.1% 53%
Draw 4.24 4.49 Pinnacle 23.6% 18.8%
Bahia win 5.38 5.75 Bet365 18.6% 28.2%
Over 2.5 goals 1.60 1.67 Betano 62.5% 55.2%
Under 2.5 goals 2.33 2.45 Betfair 42.9% 44.9%
Both teams to score - Yes 1.65 1.70 Bet365 60.6% 53.5%
Both teams to score - No 2.14 2.30 Betfair 46.7% 46.6%
Updated: 08.10.2026 20:20 · Average odds across 10 bookmakers. Informational data - not an invitation to bet and not advice. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

Match events: Palmeiras v Bahia

  1. 7′José Manuel López · Goal (assist: Alexander Barboza)
  2. 61′Nicolas Acevedo · Yellow card
  3. 64′Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira · Yellow card
  4. 65′erick pulga · Substitution (off: Ademir)
  5. 65′Nicolas Acevedo · Substitution (off: Caio Alexandre)
  6. 65′Rodrigo Nestor · Substitution (off: Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho)
  7. 69′Vitor Roque · Substitution (off: Ramon Sosa)
  8. 69′José Manuel López · Substitution (off: Jhon Arias)
  9. 82′Cristian Olivera · Substitution (off: Mateo Naín Sanabria)
  10. 82′Alejo Veliz · Substitution (off: Willian José)

Match statistics: Palmeiras v Bahia

Statistic Palmeiras Bahia
Possession 44% 56%
Shots on target 11 1
Total shots 26 9
Shots off target 12 3
Blocked shots 3 5
Corners 7 3
Fouls 8 10
Offsides 1 1
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Saves 1 10
Passes 351 470

Line-ups: Palmeiras v Bahia

Palmeiras 3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 1 Carlos Miguel 7.0
  2. 2 A. Barboza 7.8
  3. 8 Andreas Pereira 7.2
  4. 9 Vitor Roque 6.5
  5. 12 Khellven 7.1
  6. 15 G. Gómez 7.9
  7. 17 Marlon Freitas 7.2
  8. 26 Murilo 7.5
  9. 30 Lucas Evangelista 6.9
  10. 42 J. López 8.2
  11. 56 Arthur 7.4
Substitutes (12)
  1. 3 Bruno Fuchs
  2. 4 A. Giay
  3. 7 Felipe Anderson
  4. 11 J. Arias 7.0
  5. 14 Marcelo Lomba
  6. 18 Maurício
  7. 19 R. Sosa 6.9
  8. 22 J. Piquerez
  9. 32 E. Martínez
  10. 37 Fabiano
  11. 48 Larson
  12. 50 Luis Felipe

Bahia 4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 1 Ronaldo 8.8
  2. 4 Kanu 6.8
  3. 5 N. Acevedo 6.0
  4. 6 Jean Lucas 6.6
  5. 9 A. Véliz 6.1
  6. 11 Rodrigo Nestor 6.4
  7. 16 Erick Pulga 5.9
  8. 31 Roman Gomez 6.4
  9. 33 David Duarte 6.7
  10. 46 Luciano Juba 6.6
  11. 99 C. Olivera 6.3
Substitutes (12)
  1. 3 Marco Moreno
  2. 7 Ademir 6.7
  3. 8 Caio Alexandre 6.5
  4. 10 Éverton Ribeiro
  5. 12 Willian José 6.3
  6. 14 Erick 6.4
  7. 15 M. Araújo
  8. 17 G. Herrera
  9. 23 M. Sanabria 6.3
  10. 27 Everaldo
  11. 44 Marcos Victor
  12. 66 Zé Guilherme

Form and head-to-head: Palmeiras v Bahia

Palmeiras

DLWWD

Bahia

LWWWW

Serie A standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts Form
1 Flamengo 28 18 6 4 +32 60 WWWWW
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 +26 57 DWDDW
3 Athletico PR 28 14 7 7 +11 49 WDLDW
4 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 +4 48 WWLWL
5 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 +8 48 WLWDW
6 Bahia 28 12 10 6 +8 46 LWWWW
7 Atlético Mineiro 28 12 7 9 +5 43 WDWLW
8 Santos 28 11 8 9 +2 41 WWWWW
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 -6 38 LDLWW
10 Bragantino 29 10 7 12 +1 37 DLLDL
11 São Paulo 29 10 6 13 -1 36 LLWLW
12 Vitória 29 10 6 13 -10 36 WLDWL
13 Botafogo 29 9 8 12 -5 35 LLWDD
14 Vasco da Gama 28 9 7 12 -6 34 WWWLW
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 -9 33 DWDWL
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 -4 32 LLLLL
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 -5 31 WLWLL
18 Grêmio 29 7 9 13 -8 30 DDLLL
19 Remo 29 5 9 15 -15 24 DLLLL
20 Chapecoense 28 3 9 16 -28 18 LDLWL

Managers: Palmeiras v Bahia

Ferreira Abel
PalmeirasManagerFerreira Abel
Rogério Ceni
BahiaManagerRogério Ceni

Match information: Palmeiras v Bahia

Kick-off
·
Competition
Serie A
Round
Regular Season – 29
City
São Paulo
Surface
grass
Capacity
43,713