Atlético de Madrid v Villarreal in La Liga ended 2:2. Here you will find the final score, the goals and goalscorers, every key moment of the match, the full statistics with xG and the video highlights. See the match prediction or browse the full fixture list.
Prediction and probabilities: Atlético de Madrid v Villarreal
How the models performed
Pro AI (XGBoost) predicted Home win · Atlético de Madrid at 45.5% - the match finished 2:2, so the prediction was wrong.
Model
1 · Atlético de Madrid
X
2 · Villarreal
Prediction
Result
ELO + Poisson
55.9%
25.2%
18.9%
Home win · Atlético de Madrid
✘ Missed
Pro AI (XGBoost)
45.5%
20.9%
33.6%
Home win · Atlético de Madrid
✘ Missed
Data Providers
45.0%
45.0%
10.0%
Home win · Atlético de Madrid
✘ Missed
Final score
2:2
Draw
Predictions are published before kick-off and are never edited afterwards. For information purposes only – not betting advice. 18+ · Methodology
Closing odds
Before kick-off the bookmakers were offering average odds of 1.85 on a Atlético de Madrid win, 3.74 on the draw and 4.13 on a Villarreal win (closing odds).
Market
Avg odds
Best
Market %
Model %
Atlético de Madrid win
1.85
1.9010Bet
54.1%
45.5%
Draw
3.74
3.901xBet
26.7%
20.9%
Villarreal win
4.13
4.40Betfair
24.2%
33.6%
Over 2.5 goals
1.72
1.8510Bet
58.1%
62.1%
Under 2.5 goals
2.14
2.221xBet
46.7%
37.9%
Both teams to score - Yes
1.64
1.7310Bet
61%
58.4%
Both teams to score - No
2.17
2.30Betfair
46.1%
41.6%
Updated: 23.08.2026 14:45 · Average odds across 14 bookmakers. Informational data - not an invitation to bet and not advice. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Match statistics: Atlético de Madrid v Villarreal
Statistic
Atlético de Madrid
Villarreal
Possession
50%
50%
Shots on target
2
1
Total shots
8
5
Shots off target
2
2
Blocked shots
4
2
Corners
3
1
Fouls
2
5
Saves
1
2
Passes
186
200
Pass accuracy
88%
90%
Line-ups: Atlético de Madrid v Villarreal
Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2
Starting XI
4 Rodrigo Mendoza 6.3
6 Koke 7.3
7 Kang-in Lee 6.3
11 Ademola Lookman 7.2
13 Jan Oblak 6.7
17 Dávid Hancko 6.7
18 Marc Pubill 7.2
20 Giuliano Simeone 6.9
22 Alejandro Grimaldo 6.9
23 Morten Hjulmand 6.9
24 Robin Le Normand 6.7
Substitutes (12)
1 Juan Musso
2 José María Giménez
5 Johnny Cardoso
8 Pablo Barrios
10 Alex Baena
12 Carlos Martín
14 Marcos Llorente
16 Arnau Ortiz
19 Julián Alvarez
27 Jorge Domínguez
30 Dani Martinez
46 Jorge Castillo
Villarreal 4-4-2
Starting XI
1 Luiz Júnior 6.9
8 Juan Foyth 6.7
9 Georges Mikautadze 6.7
10 Alberto Moleiro 6.3
12 Renato Veiga 6.9
14 Santi Comesaña 6.3
15 Santiago Mouriño 6.6
18 Pape Gueye 6.9
19 Nicolas Pépé 6.9
20 Carlos Romero 6.5
22 Ayoze Pérez 6.3
Substitutes (12)
2 Logan Costa
3 Alexander Freeman
6 Pau Navarro
7 Gerard Moreno
11 Ilias Akhomach
17 Tajon Buchanan
21 Tani Oluwaseyi
23 Sergi Cardona
25 Péter Gulácsi
26 Carlos Maciá
27 Nizar El Jmili
30 Cheikh Tidiane Thiam
Form and head-to-head: Atlético de Madrid v Villarreal
