Qarabağ v Araz

3:2

Full time

Qarabağ v Araz in Premyer Liqa ended 3:2. Here you will find the final score, the goals and goalscorers, every key moment of the match, the full statistics with xG and the video highlights. See the match prediction or browse the full fixture list.

Prediction and probabilities: Qarabağ v Araz

How the models performed

Pro AI (XGBoost) predicted Home win · Qarabağ at 60.3% - the match finished 3:2, so the prediction was correct.

Model	1 · Qarabağ	X	2 · Araz	Prediction	Result
ELO + Poisson	63.0%	24.4%	12.6%	Home win · Qarabağ	✔ Correct
Pro AI (XGBoost)	60.3%	22.5%	17.2%	Home win · Qarabağ	✔ Correct
Final score	3:2			Home win · Qarabağ

Predictions are published before kick-off and are never edited afterwards. For information purposes only – not betting advice. 18+ · Methodology

Closing odds

Before kick-off the bookmakers were offering average odds of 1.16 on a Qarabağ win, 6.14 on the draw and 12.75 on a Araz win (closing odds).

Market	Avg odds	Best	Market %	Model %
Qarabağ win	1.16	1.18 William Hill	86.2%	60.3%
Draw	6.14	6.51 Pinnacle	16.3%	22.5%
Araz win	12.75	13.25 Marathonbet	7.8%	17.2%
Over 2.5 goals	1.48	1.53 Bet365	67.6%	53%
Under 2.5 goals	2.41	2.50 Pinnacle	41.5%	47%
Both teams to score - Yes	2.17	2.25 Bet365	46.1%	51.6%
Both teams to score - No	1.60	1.67 William Hill	62.5%	48.4%

Updated: 06.09.2026 13:22 · Average odds across 5 bookmakers. Informational data - not an invitation to bet and not advice. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

Match events: Qarabağ v Araz

8′J. Montiel · Goal
14′R. Muradov · Yellow card
42′I. Paro · Substitution (off: Bruno Franco)
44′C. Makreckis · Yellow card
44′M. Ahmadzada · Yellow card
65′M. Ahmadzada · Substitution (off: C. Nuriyev)
65′A. Sudi · Substitution (off: A. Salyanskiy)
65′T. Ismaheel · Substitution (off: R. Cephas)
65′J. Montiel · Substitution (off: M. Qurbanly)
67′R. Cephas · Goal
72′L. Dumancic · Goal
73′Diego Rosa · Substitution (off: Pedro Bicalho)
76′P. Andrade · Substitution (off: A. Fernandez)
76′R. Muradov · Substitution (off: C. Boli)
79′M. Kane · Yellow card
87′O. Kashchuk · Substitution (off: R. Khadra)
89′M. Qurbanly · Goal
90+3′A. Salyanskiy · Goal

Form and head-to-head: Qarabağ v Araz

Qarabağ

DWLWW

13 Sep 2026AZira1–1D
31 Aug 2026ASumqayıt1–0W
27 Aug 2026HFC Twente1–4L
20 Aug 2026AFC Twente1–0W
17 August 2026HŞamaxı FK3–1W

Araz

DLLDL

13 Sep 2026HTuran2–2D
31 Aug 2026HSabah0–1L
23 Aug 2026ANeftchi Baku0–5L
15 August 2026HImisli FK0–0D
4 Dec 2025HKapaz0–1L

Premyer Liqa standings

Current competition standings
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Zira	3	3	0	0	+5	9	WWW
2	Neftchi Baku	3	2	0	1	+6	6	LWW
3	Qarabağ	2	2	0	0	+3	6	WW
4	Sabah	2	2	0	0	+3	6	WW
5	Şamaxı FK	4	1	2	1	+1	5	WDDL
6	Turan	3	1	1	1	0	4	LDW
7	Qabala	4	1	1	2	-1	4	WDLL
8	Imisli FK	4	1	1	2	-2	4	LWLD
9	Safa Baku	3	1	0	2	-2	3	LWL
10	Kapaz	3	1	0	2	-4	3	LWL
11	Araz	3	0	1	2	-6	1	LLD
12	Sumqayıt	2	0	0	2	-3	0	LL

Match information: Qarabağ v Araz

Kick-off: Sun 6 Sep · 16:15
Competition: Premyer Liqa
Round: Regular Season – 4
Venue: Tofik Bakhramov
City: Baku
Surface: grass
Capacity: 31,200