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Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

La Liga
Real Madrid
4:1
Full time
Rayo Vallecano

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano in La Liga ended 4:1. Here you will find the final score, the goals and goalscorers, every key moment of the match, the full statistics with xG and the video highlights. See the match prediction or browse the full fixture list.

Prediction and probabilities: Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

How the models performed

Pro AI (XGBoost) predicted Home win · Real Madrid at 60.0% - the match finished 4:1, so the prediction was correct.
Model 1 · Real Madrid X 2 · Rayo Vallecano Prediction Result
ELO + Poisson 62.4% 22.4% 15.2% Home win · Real Madrid ✔ Correct
Pro AI (XGBoost) 60.0% 21.4% 18.6% Home win · Real Madrid ✔ Correct
Data Providers 45.0% 45.0% 10.0% Home win · Real Madrid ✔ Correct
Final score 4:1 Home win · Real Madrid
Predictions are published before kick-off and are never edited afterwards. For information purposes only – not betting advice. 18+ · Methodology

Closing odds

Before kick-off the bookmakers were offering average odds of 1.13 on a Real Madrid win, 8.57 on the draw and 17.82 on a Rayo Vallecano win (closing odds).
Market Avg odds Best Market % Model %
Real Madrid win 1.13 1.16 1xBet 88.5% 60%
Draw 8.57 9.20 Dafabet 11.7% 21.4%
Rayo Vallecano win 17.82 22.00 Marathonbet 5.6% 18.6%
Over 2.5 goals 1.29 1.34 Betano 77.5% 61.5%
Under 2.5 goals 3.34 3.60 Betfair 29.9% 38.5%
Both teams to score - Yes 1.99 2.05 Betano 50.3% 55.5%
Both teams to score - No 1.74 1.83 William Hill 57.5% 44.5%
Updated: 09.09.2026 23:25 · Average odds across 12 bookmakers. Informational data - not an invitation to bet and not advice. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

Match events: Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

  1. 14′Kylian Mbappé · Penalty
  2. 17′Álvaro Fernández Carreras · Goal (assist: Kylian Mbappé)
  3. 35′Jude Bellingham · Goal (assist: Vinícius)
  4. 45′Federico Valverde · Substitution (off: Eduardo Camavinga)
  5. 51′Sergio Camello · Goal
  6. 67′Pedro Díaz · Substitution (off: Rayane Belaid)
  7. 67′Gnangoro Bouare · Substitution (off: Óscar Valentín)
  8. 69′Bernardo Silva · Substitution (off: Aurelien Tchouameni)
  9. 72′Yan Diomande · Substitution (off: Arda Güler)
  10. 75′Sergio Camello · Substitution (off: Alexandre Zurawski)
  11. 75′Unai López · Substitution (off: Mujaid Sadick)
  12. 76′Pathé Ciss · Yellow card
  13. 86′Adrià Pedrosa · Substitution (off: Ivan Balliu)
  14. 89′Vinícius · Substitution (off: Marc Cucurella)
  15. 90+1′Kylian Mbappé · Goal (assist: Arda Güler)

Match statistics: Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

Statistic Real Madrid Rayo Vallecano
Possession 58% 42%
Shots on target 11 7
Total shots 24 17
Shots off target 8 6
Blocked shots 5 4
Corners 11 5
Fouls 9 13
Offsides 1 0
Yellow cards 0 1
Red cards 0 0
Saves 6 7
Passes 531 395

Line-ups: Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1 T. Courtois 7.6
  2. 5 J. Bellingham 8.2
  3. 7 Vinícius Júnior 7.7
  4. 8 F. Valverde 7.2
  5. 10 Kylian Mbappé 7.7
  6. 16 I. Konaté 6.9
  7. 18 Álvaro Fernández 8.1
  8. 20 Bernardo Silva 6.9
  9. 22 A. Rüdiger 7.2
  10. 24 D. Dumfries 6.8
  11. 25 Y. Diomande 7.1
Substitutes (12)
  1. 2 Raúl Asencio
  2. 4 D. Huijsen
  3. 6 E. Camavinga 7.0
  4. 9 Endrick
  5. 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
  6. 13 A. Lunin
  7. 14 A. Tchouaméni 6.5
  8. 15 A. Güler 7.6
  9. 17 Marc Cucurella 6.5
  10. 19 Carlos Espí
  11. 21 Brahim Díaz
  12. 27 Thiago Pitarch

Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 2 A. Rațiu 5.6
  2. 4 Pedro Díaz 6.7
  3. 6 P. Ciss 6.1
  4. 8 Unai López 6.3
  5. 10 Sergio Camello 8.2
  6. 14 G. Tsitaishvili 6.0
  7. 17 Adrià Pedrosa 6.7
  8. 18 Álvaro García 5.8
  9. 24 F. Lejeune 6.0
  10. 25 E. Audero 6.8
  11. 36 G. Bouare 6.5
Substitutes (12)
  1. 1 Dani Cárdenas
  2. 3 M. Kumbulla
  3. 9 Alemão 6.4
  4. 15 Mujaid Sadick 6.2
  5. 20 I. Balliu 5.9
  6. 22 Pelayo Fernández
  7. 23 Óscar Valentín 5.9
  8. 26 Marco de las Sías
  9. 28 Samu Becerra
  10. 30 Adrián Molina
  11. 31 M. Roman
  12. 37 Rayane Belid 6.3

Form and head-to-head: Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

Real Madrid

WLWWW

Rayo Vallecano

WLDLL

Head-to-head – last 1 meetings

Real Madrid wins: 1; draws: 0; Rayo Vallecano wins: 0.

Date Home Score Away Competition
Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano La Liga

La Liga standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts Form
1 FC Barcelona 5 5 0 0 +17 15 WWWWW
2 Real Madrid 5 4 0 1 +10 12 WLWWW
3 Deportivo Alavés 5 3 1 1 +6 10 LWWDW
4 Atlético de Madrid 5 3 1 1 +4 10 WLWDW
5 Sevilla 5 3 1 1 +2 10 WDLWW
6 Deportivo A Coruña 5 2 3 0 +3 9 DWWDD
7 Real Betis 4 3 0 1 0 9 WLWW
8 Espanyol 5 2 1 2 +3 7 WDLLW
9 Athletic Club 5 2 1 2 +1 7 DWWLL
10 Racing Santander 5 2 1 2 0 7 WLWLD
11 Osasuna 5 2 1 2 -3 7 LLWWD
12 Real Sociedad 6 2 1 3 -5 7 LWDWL
13 Levante 5 1 2 2 -2 5 LDWDL
14 Getafe 5 1 2 2 -3 5 DDLWL
15 Celta de Vigo 6 0 4 2 -3 4 DDDLL
16 Rayo Vallecano 5 1 1 3 -6 4 LWLDL
17 Málaga 5 0 3 2 -6 3 DDLDL
18 Villarreal 4 0 2 2 -2 2 LLDD
19 Elche 5 0 2 3 -7 2 DLLLD
20 Valencia 5 0 1 4 -9 1 LLLLD

Managers: Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

José Mourinho
Real MadridManagerJosé Mourinho
Benat San Jose
Rayo VallecanoManagerBenat San Jose

Match information: Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

Kick-off
·
Competition
La Liga
Round
Regular Season – 5
City
Madrid
Surface
grass
Capacity
84,744