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Toluca v Atlas

Liga MX
Toluca
5:2
Full time
Atlas

Toluca v Atlas in Liga MX ended 5:2. Here you will find the final score, the goals and goalscorers, every key moment of the match, the full statistics with xG and the video highlights. See the match prediction or browse the full fixture list.

Prediction and probabilities: Toluca v Atlas

How the models performed

Pro AI (XGBoost) predicted Home win · Toluca at 51.7% - the match finished 5:2, so the prediction was correct.
Model 1 · Toluca X 2 · Atlas Prediction Result
ELO + Poisson 43.8% 26.5% 29.7% Home win · Toluca ✔ Correct
Pro AI (XGBoost) 51.7% 19.6% 28.7% Home win · Toluca ✔ Correct
Data Providers 45.0% 45.0% 10.0% Home win · Toluca ✔ Correct
Final score 5:2 Home win · Toluca
Predictions are published before kick-off and are never edited afterwards. For information purposes only – not betting advice. 18+ · Methodology

Closing odds

Before kick-off the bookmakers were offering average odds of 1.42 on a Toluca win, 4.41 on the draw and 6.57 on a Atlas win (closing odds).
Market Avg odds Best Market % Model %
Toluca win 1.42 1.45 1xBet 70.4% 51.7%
Draw 4.41 4.64 Pinnacle 22.7% 19.6%
Atlas win 6.57 7.16 Pinnacle 15.2% 28.7%
Over 2.5 goals 1.56 1.59 Pinnacle 64.1% 53.9%
Under 2.5 goals 2.37 2.38 Pinnacle 42.2% 46.1%
Both teams to score - Yes 1.68 1.68 1xBet 59.5% 53.9%
Both teams to score - No 2.04 2.08 1xBet 49% 46.1%
Updated: 09.09.2026 23:25 · Average odds across 3 bookmakers. Informational data - not an invitation to bet and not advice. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

Match events: Toluca v Atlas

  1. 19′Alexis Vega · Penalty
  2. 22′Jesús Angulo · Goal (assist: Nicolás Castro)
  3. 24′Manuel Capasso · Yellow card
  4. 29′Federico Viñas · Goal (assist: Bruno Méndez)
  5. 45′Federico Viñas · Substitution (off: João Paulo Dias Fernandes)
  6. 45′Arturo González · Substitution (off: Luis Lopes)
  7. 45′Paulo Ramirez · Substitution (off: Sergio Hernández)
  8. 51′Florián Monzón · Goal (assist: Luís André Leite Esteves)
  9. 53′João Paulo Dias Fernandes · Goal (assist: Jesús Angulo)
  10. 57′Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro · Yellow card
  11. 57′Milton Valenzuela · Yellow card
  12. 58′Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro · Substitution (off: Everardo Lopez)
  13. 60′Jorge Rodríguez · Own goal
  14. 62′Jorge Sánchez · Substitution (off: Elías Montiel)
  15. 72′Jesús Angulo · Substitution (off: Víctor Guzmán)
  16. 72′Nicolás Castro · Substitution (off: Pavel Pérez)
  17. 79′Luis Lopes · Goal
  18. 80′Luís André Leite Esteves · Substitution (off: J. Serrato)
  19. 81′J. Serrato · Yellow card
  20. 83′Alexis Vega · Substitution (off: Luan Garcia)
  21. 87′Manuel Capasso · Substitution (off: Adrian Mora)

Match statistics: Toluca v Atlas

Statistic Toluca Atlas
Possession 54% 46%
Shots on target 6 2
Total shots 14 10
Shots off target 5 5
Blocked shots 3 3
Corners 6 8
Fouls 11 13
Offsides 3 0
Yellow cards 1 3
Red cards 0 0
Saves 0 2
Passes 456 386

Line-ups: Toluca v Atlas

Toluca 4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 2 D. Barbosa 6.3
  2. 4 B. Méndez 7.0
  3. 5 F. Romero 6.4
  4. 6 F. Pereira 6.8
  5. 8 N. Castro 7.1
  6. 9 A. Vega 7.2
  7. 10 J. Angulo 8.7
  8. 11 Helinho 6.0
  9. 12 R. Beltrán 6.5
  10. 16 F. Viñas 7.9
  11. 20 J. Gallardo 7.0
Substitutes (10)
  1. 3 A. Briseño
  2. 7 V. Guzmán 6.1
  3. 13 Luan 6.5
  4. 15 P. Pérez 6.0
  5. 18 D. Shrem
  6. 23 O. Virgen
  7. 24 F. Arce
  8. 25 E. López 6.3
  9. 26 Paulinho 7.4
  10. 184 S. Aceves

Atlas 5-3-2

Starting XI

  1. 3 J. Sánchez 5.6
  2. 5 J. Rodríguez 5.2
  3. 9 F. Monzón 7.5
  4. 10 Luís Esteves 6.6
  5. 12 C. Vargas 5.6
  6. 13 G. Aguirre 6.0
  7. 15 Paulo Ramírez 5.9
  8. 16 M. Valenzuela 5.2
  9. 27 V. Ríos 5.8
  10. 28 M. Capasso 5.4
  11. 58 A. González 5.9
Substitutes (10)
  1. 4 A. Mora 5.5
  2. 11 Duk 7.3
  3. 17 J. Lozano
  4. 18 E. Montiel 6.0
  5. 22 A. Sánchez
  6. 23 S. Hernández 5.8
  7. 44 J. Purata
  8. 192 Jesús Serrato 5.7
  9. 203 J. Martín
  10. 251 L. Gamboa

Form and head-to-head: Toluca v Atlas

Toluca

WWDWL
  • HFC Juarez4–0W
  • AClub Queretaro2–1W
  • AAtlante FC0–0D
  • HNecaxa3–1W
  • HU.N.A.M. – Pumas1–2L

Atlas

DLWWL

Liga MX standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts Form
1 Toluca 7 5 1 1 +11 16 WWWDW
2 Club America 7 5 1 1 +9 16 LWWWW
3 Cruz Azul 8 5 0 3 +2 15 WWWLL
4 Guadalajara Chivas 7 4 2 1 +6 14 WDWWD
5 Club Queretaro 7 4 1 2 +3 13 WWLDW
6 Club Tijuana 7 4 1 2 +2 13 LWLWD
7 Puebla 7 4 1 2 +1 13 WLWWD
8 Atlas 8 4 1 3 -2 13 LDLWW
9 CF Pachuca 8 3 2 3 +5 11 WWDDL
10 U.N.A.M. – Pumas 7 3 2 2 +2 11 WLDDW
11 Monterrey 7 3 1 3 +3 10 DLLWW
12 Leon 7 3 1 3 0 10 LDWWW
13 Necaxa 8 2 2 4 -4 8 LDLDL
14 Tigres UANL 8 1 4 3 -2 7 DDDWL
15 Atlante FC 8 1 4 3 -5 7 LDDLD
16 Atletico San Luis 7 1 3 3 -5 6 LWDLD
17 Santos Laguna 8 1 1 6 -7 4 WLDLL
18 FC Juarez 8 0 0 8 -19 0 LLLLL

Managers: Toluca v Atlas

Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
TolucaManagerRicardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
H. Crespo
AtlasManagerH. CrespoArgentina

Match information: Toluca v Atlas

Kick-off
·
Competition
Liga MX
Round
Apertura – 8