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Vitória Guimarães v Nacional

Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães
1:0
Full time
Nacional

Vitória Guimarães v Nacional in Liga Portugal ended 1:0. Here you will find the final score, the goals and goalscorers, every key moment of the match, the full statistics with xG and the video highlights. See the match prediction or browse the full fixture list.

Prediction and probabilities: Vitória Guimarães v Nacional

How the models performed

Pro AI (XGBoost) predicted Home win · Vitória Guimarães at 36.8% - the match finished 1:0, so the prediction was correct.
Model 1 · Vitória Guimarães X 2 · Nacional Prediction Result
ELO + Poisson 41.3% 27.0% 31.7% Home win · Vitória Guimarães ✔ Correct
Pro AI (XGBoost) 36.8% 27.5% 35.8% Home win · Vitória Guimarães ✔ Correct
Data Providers 10.0% 45.0% 45.0% Away win · Nacional ✘ Missed
Final score 1:0 Home win · Vitória Guimarães
Predictions are published before kick-off and are never edited afterwards. For information purposes only – not betting advice. 18+ · Methodology

Closing odds

Before kick-off the bookmakers were offering average odds of 1.66 on a Vitória Guimarães win, 3.79 on the draw and 5.11 on a Nacional win (closing odds).
Market Avg odds Best Market % Model %
Vitória Guimarães win 1.66 1.71 1xBet 60.2% 36.8%
Draw 3.79 4.02 Pinnacle 26.4% 27.5%
Nacional win 5.11 5.50 Betfair 19.6% 35.8%
Over 2.5 goals 1.90 1.94 1xBet 52.6% 49.6%
Under 2.5 goals 1.88 1.95 Pinnacle 53.2% 50.4%
Both teams to score - Yes 1.85 1.91 Bet365 54.1% 55.2%
Both teams to score - No 1.87 1.91 William Hill 53.5% 44.8%
Updated: 23.08.2026 14:45 · Average odds across 14 bookmakers. Informational data - not an invitation to bet and not advice. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

Match events: Vitória Guimarães v Nacional

  1. 4′Gustavo · Goal (assist: M. Nogueira)
  2. 28′G. Nogueira · Yellow card
  3. 38′M. Nogueira · Yellow card
  4. 45+4′T. Margarido · Yellow card
  5. 49′Samu · Penalty missed
  6. 56′Wesley Gasolina · Substitution (off: D. I. de la Cruz)
  7. 56′M. Baeza · Substitution (off: W. Kokolo)
  8. 63′L. Doucet · Substitution (off: B. Mukendi)
  9. 63′M. Nogueira · Substitution (off: O. Camara)

Match statistics: Vitória Guimarães v Nacional

Statistic Vitória Guimarães Nacional
Possession 49% 51%
Shots on target 5 0
Total shots 16 3
Shots off target 7 1
Blocked shots 4 2
Corners 2 3
Fouls 10 3
Offsides 1 0
Yellow cards 2 0
Saves 0 3
Passes 252 262
Pass accuracy 86% 81%

Line-ups: Vitória Guimarães v Nacional

Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 4 Óscar Rivas 7.0
  2. 8 Gonçalo Nogueira 6.9
  3. 11 Gustavo Silva 7.7
  4. 13 João Mendes 6.3
  5. 17 Miguel Nogueira 7.2
  6. 20 Samu 7.0
  7. 23 Tony Strata 7.3
  8. 24 Alioune Ndoye 6.3
  9. 28 Thiago Balieiro 6.9
  10. 44 Lohann Doucet 6.9
  11. 48 Oliwier Zych 6.6
Substitutes (11)
  1. 2 Miguel Maga
  2. 5 Franck Ahmed Sidibé
  3. 6 Matija Mitrović
  4. 7 Oumar Camara
  5. 16 Beni Mukendi
  6. 18 Telmo Arcanjo
  7. 22 Juan Castillo
  8. 29 Patrick Ouotro
  9. 56 Santi Verdi
  10. 82 Francisco Dias
  11. 98 Lucas Furtado

Nacional 3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 1 Renato Marin 7.2
  2. 6 Matheus Dias 6.6
  3. 7 Markus Jensen 6.5
  4. 8 Miguel Baeza 7.2
  5. 10 Daniel Júnior 7.0
  6. 22 Filipe Soares 7.0
  7. 28 Liziero 6.7
  8. 34 Léo Santos 7.2
  9. 38 Ze Vitor 5.9
  10. 52 Wesley Gasolina 6.5
  11. 99 Pablo Messias Cardozo 6.2
Substitutes (9)
  1. 2 Daniel De la Cruz
  2. 9 Allen Obando
  3. 11 Stavros Gavriel
  4. 13 João Gonçalves
  5. 20 Matchoi Djaló
  6. 21 Williams Kokolo
  7. 23 Mateus Jose Iseppe
  8. 33 Francisco Gonçalves
  9. 88 Deivison Souza Brito

Form and head-to-head: Vitória Guimarães v Nacional

Vitória Guimarães

LDLLL

Nacional

LLLWD

Head-to-head – last 2 meetings

Vitória Guimarães wins: 1; draws: 0; Nacional wins: 1.

Date Home Score Away Competition
Nacional 2–0 Vitória Guimarães Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães 2–1 Nacional Liga Portugal

Liga Portugal standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts Form
1 Porto 6 6 0 0 +13 18 WWWWW
2 Benfica 6 5 1 0 +17 16 WWWWW
3 Sporting CP 6 4 2 0 +9 14 DWWWW
4 Santa Clara 6 4 2 0 +7 14 WWDWW
5 Arouca 6 3 1 2 +3 10 LDWLW
6 Estrela Amadora 5 2 3 0 +2 9 WDWDD
7 Academico Viseu 6 2 2 2 -2 8 WWLDL
8 Sporting Braga 4 2 1 1 +1 7 LWWD
9 Gil Vicente 5 2 1 2 0 7 LLDWW
10 Marítimo 5 2 1 2 -2 7 LLDWW
11 Alverca 6 1 2 3 -3 5 WLDLD
12 Famalicão 6 0 4 2 -2 4 DDDLL
13 Vitória Guimarães 6 1 1 4 -3 4 LDLWL
14 Nacional 6 1 1 4 -4 4 LLLLW
15 Moreirense 5 1 1 3 -8 4 LLWLD
16 Rio Ave 5 1 0 4 -9 3 LLWLL
17 Estoril 5 0 2 3 -5 2 DLLLD
18 Casa Pia 6 0 1 5 -14 1 LDLLL

Managers: Vitória Guimarães v Nacional

Tiago Margarido
Vitória GuimarãesManagerTiago Margarido
Giao Joao
NacionalManagerGiao Joao

Match information: Vitória Guimarães v Nacional

Kick-off
·
Competition
Liga Portugal
Round
3
City
Guimarães
Surface
grass
Capacity
30,008